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“There is a high probability that there will be below-normal rainfall in most districts of Maharashtra. When August received little rainfall, July’s excess supported it. If September sees below-normal rain after the August fury, there will be an impact,” K S Hosalikar, former head of Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, said.

“Reservoir levels would come down quickly, even in the next 15 days. The surplus rain reading in Pune district could come down to normal soon. We would be pulling from resources, because there is no inflow,” he warned.

Hosalikar pointed out that the maximum and minimum temperatures projected for September are above normal. “This means that evaporation will be very high. In dams, reservoirs and lakes, when temperature rises, water can reduce significantly. At the same time, people in Pune will be using water as usual,” he said, adding that unless the Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations step in, “this could become a pain point”.

This July, Shivajinagar, Pune’s main weather station, saw historically heavy rain on three consecutive days. But August brought only 84.5 mm of rain—the third‑lowest in a decade, after 40.6 mm in 2021 and 42.1 mm in 2023. The total rain received in the entire season, however, ensured the city had a 200 mm surplus rain as September began.

The dry August in the district and the city mirrored the overall situation in the country and the state: India ended August with a 14 per cent rainfall deficit, and Maharashtra, 12 per cent.

According to Hosalikar, the rainfall in August has been “very challenging” for Maharashtra as the skies were clear most of the time.

“Since the total rainfall is still looking good, it means that the reservoirs hold sufficient supply of water. In the agriculture sector, we have needed to depend upon other irrigation methods. In areas without good irrigation methods, crops must have suffered due to the August heat and almost no rain. When there is no rain, there is mostly moist heat or dry heat, which can cause exhaustion and other stresses,” Hosalikar said.

The IMD has said that the country is likely to see below-normal rain in September as well, less than 91 per cent of the Long Period Average.

Climatologically, Maharashtra has received good rainfall during the withdrawal phase of the monsoon, which starts around September 10 from Rajasthan, Hosalikar said. “This could be associated with thunderstorms…the state could receive rainfall that would lead to a partial replenishment of the resources,” he added.

He added that unlike the past, the Indian economy has grown to a point where one bad monsoon is unlikely to trigger food shortages. While water demand could increase, Maharashtra, where many regions face water scarcity, has implemented solutions. “The state, which is the largest contributor to the country’s economy, is sufficiently equipped to navigate this crisis,” Hosalikar added.

He added a note of caution. “This is the time when we also talk about the El Niño maturing. There is a very clear forecast that it could peak at the end of October or the beginning of November. So, temperatures could be on the rise,” he said.