Trippi: GOP Must Win Back 26 Of 31%. Here’s Their Problem.
He walks thru early-vote data (Dems and indies voting at higher rates than '22, Latino early turnout 54 percent above the '24 presidential pace), explains why Texas redistricting built on Trump’s '24 numbers with Latinos and indies is “collapsing around them,” and says the year this election most resembles isn't 1994, but 1980. When Dems woke up to a 12-seat Senate wipeout nobody saw coming.
The second half's the math. Trippi shares a poll question that explains it all—45% of voters say they're turning out to vote vs Trump, 24% to support him, 31% say he's not a factor—and shows why a GOP incumbent must win 26 of 31% to hit 50. From there, race by race: Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton in AR, Scott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith in MS, the indies (Dan Osborn, Brian Bengs, Todd Achilles, Seth Bodnar), governors (Rob Sand, Doug Jones, David Jolly, Amy Acton, Gina Hinojosa), + Andy Harris’s meltdown in MD's 1st District on video!
This is such a midterm info packed episode, you'll wanna watch the video and read the write up at BAM!
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