Signing you in

According to the notice of disciplinary action Kalshi posted today, the former politician placed trades in markets related to whether he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address in February 2026. He then “began making a series of public statements regarding his attendance at the event in an attempt to influence the price” of certain contracts, some of which were “false or misleading,” per the notice.

The day before the address, Santos posted, “I'm going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys” on X. During the speech, he sent a follow-up noting that he was actually at an airport watching the address on television. “FML,” he wrote.

Kalshi’s enforcement team flagged the trades, froze Santos’ account, and referred the case to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees prediction markets. This summer, Santos settled with the CFTC for $35,000 over these suspicious trades; a little more than $17,500 was returning the profit he made, with an additional $17,500 fine. At the time, his lawyer issued a statement stressing that Santos settled to “put this matter behind him” and that he had done so “without admitting the Commission’s allegations, findings or conclusions.”

Through his legal representative, Santos declined to comment to WIRED. On social media, however, he had already weighed in, sarcastically thanking Kalshi “for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform,” adding, “Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for 💋,” a nod to the prediction market’s ongoing battles with state authorities over how it is regulated.

Once upon a time, Santos had a rosier relationship with the industry; he was once paid for promoting Kalshi’s rival Polymarket, but Polymarket severed ties with him once federal regulators began looking into his behavior around February’s State of the Union address.

This is far from Santos’ first brush with the law. He was expelled from Congress following an ethics investigation in 2023 and eventually pleaded guilty and served time in federal prison for embezzling from campaign donors, lying to Congress, and defrauding campaign contributors. He was released from prison in 2025 after President Trump commuted his sentence.

According to today’s notice, the prediction market found that Santos successfully influenced the pricing of several markets. Kalshi also issued four additional notices of enforcement actions today, but Santos was the only person penalized who had not settled with the company.

“He wouldn’t talk to us and actively dodged us,” Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana tells WIRED.

In the past year, Kalshi has issued a number of other enforcement actions against politicians whom it found had broken its rules. In this most recent round of enforcement actions, it fined North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout, California gubernatorial candidate Stephen Cloobeck, and Maine gubernatorial candidate Ben Midgley for attempting to trade on contracts related to their races; they are all temporarily suspended.

“I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right,” Buckhout, a retired military officer, told WIRED in an email. "Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.” Cloobeck and Midgley did not immediately respond to WIRED’s request for comment.

Previously, Kalshi fined US Senate candidate Mark Moran for insider trading; at the time, Moran told WIRED that he “did it on purpose” and did not intend to cooperate with Kalshi.

Kalshi’s Diana says that Santos can expect “legal action” if he does not pay.

Updated August 31, 2026, 4:40 pm EDT: This story was updated to correct the spelling of Stephen Cloobeck’s name.

You Might Also LikeIn your inbox: WIRED's most ambitious, future-defining stories